ANTICIPATING PERNICIOUS CASCADES
Anticipating Pernicious Cascades
Using advanced methods to map and model complex global systems, Institute researchers continually scan the “possibility frontier,” which is the boundary between what is known about the world and what is reasonably possible, to identify ways the eight global systems highlighted around the adjacent octagon might interact to produce cascading instabilities. This scanning exercise has generated two major projects to date:
Institute researchers map causal routes of destabilization among the eight key global systems (highlighted around the adjacent octagon) using methods for mapping the causal structure and mechanisms of complex social systems.
As part of its polycrisis work, the Institute also regularly convenes a panel of eight experts to identify unanticipated spillover effects of the Ukraine-Russia war for geopolitics, international security, ideological polarization, food systems, global finance, and climate policy. Insights from the Ukraine-Russia War Expert Panel are fed back into the Cascade Institute’s analysis and summaries of the meetings conclusions are broadly disseminated.
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Inter-Systemic Cascades Briefs
14 lessons for social movement success
Amy Janzwood
This brief summarizes lessons from the academic literature for building successful social movements. It outlines several core insights with an eye on their practical application for social movements, advocacy campaigns, and their supporters.
Pension funds and the post-pandemic economy: A shift to bold climate leadership
Scott Janzwood
February 23, 2021 • This Brief analyzes the impact of the pandemic on pension funds and presents strategies for organizations, activists, and researchers to accelerate pension fund leadership on climate change.
Network dynamics of the pandemic shock: Three network shifts and why they matter
Jinelle Piereder
January 11, 2021 • This Brief analyzes three major shifts in humanity’s networks that the COVID-19 pandemic has triggered or accelerated: (1) network centralization, (2) network fragmentation and reconfiguration, and (3) network formation. It then examines the impact of these shifts across economic, food, information, and governance systems.
The Roubini Cascade: Are we heading for a Greater Depression?
Michael Lawrence & Thomas Homer-Dixon
December 4, 2020 • This Brief develops a system map of Nouriel Roubini’s argument that the world is heading into a Greater Depression. It uses this visualization to highlight crucial features of his prediction.
Active transportation with micro electric vehicles: Emergency COVID-19 responses and the disrupted future of oil
Yonatan Strauch
June 30, 2020 • This Brief reports on the dramatic changes to urban transportation systems in the United States and Canada during the pandemic.
Behind the mask: Anti-mask and pro-mask attitudes in North America
Scott Janzwood & Michelle Lee
September 15, 2020 • This Brief reviews the emerging scientific evidence on the effectiveness of masks for preventing the spread of COVID-19 and offers strategies for addressing persistent anti-scientific beliefs around masks, COVID-19 and other issues.
Shocking global inequality
Michael Lawrence
August 25, 2020 • This Brief examines how the COVID-19 pandemic is interacting with entrenched structural inequalities between the wealthiest and the most marginalized segments of humanity.
Evacuating communities affected by disasters during future COVID-19 waves
Scott Janzwood
July 7, 2020 • This Brief investigates the challenges of evacuating communities from natural disasters during possible future “waves” of COVID-19 cases.
From COVID-19 to a more resilient future: Three interlinked transitions
Michael Lawrence
June 20, 2020 • This Brief uses insights from complexity science to argue that—in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic—Canada must pursue three interlinked transitions if it is to reach a more equitable and resilient future.
