ANTICIPATING PERNICIOUS CASCADES
Anticipating Pernicious Cascades
Using advanced methods to map and model complex global systems, Institute researchers continually scan the “possibility frontier,” which is the boundary between what is known about the world and what is reasonably possible, to identify ways the eight global systems highlighted around the adjacent octagon might interact to produce cascading instabilities. This scanning exercise has generated two major projects to date:
Institute researchers map causal routes of destabilization among the eight key global systems (highlighted around the adjacent octagon) using methods for mapping the causal structure and mechanisms of complex social systems.
As part of its polycrisis work, the Institute also regularly convenes a panel of eight experts to identify unanticipated spillover effects of the Ukraine-Russia war for geopolitics, international security, ideological polarization, food systems, global finance, and climate policy. Insights from the Ukraine-Russia War Expert Panel are fed back into the Cascade Institute’s analysis and summaries of the meetings conclusions are broadly disseminated.