Technical Papers

Impact 2024: How Donald Trump’s Reelection Could Amplify Global Inter-systemic Risk

Thomas Homer-Dixon, Michael Lawrence, Megan Shipman, Luke Kemp

This report, updated with an October 29, 2024 addendum, assesses how a second Trump administration could supercharge global political, economic, geopolitical, environmental, and pandemic risks and how those risks could then combine to escalate the world’s already severe polycrisis.

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Introduction to Polycrisis Analysis

Michael Lawrence, Megan Shipman, and Thomas Homer-Dixon

This guide presents the Cascade Institute’s framework for polycrisis analysis. It introduces an integrated set of concepts that clarifies interactions between global systemic crises and the potential outcomes of those interactions. It is intended to help governments, firms, and communities see through the fog currently surrounding global risks more effectively, so they can better anticipate and respond to emerging threats.

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Global polycrisis: The causal mechanisms of crisis entanglement

Michael Lawrence, Thomas Homer-Dixon, Scott Janzwood, Johan Rockström, Ortwin Renn, and Jonathan F. Donges

This peer-reviewed paper, published in Cambridge University Press’s Global Sustainability journal, defines the concept of global polycrisis and provides a theoretical framework to explain causal mechanisms currently entangling many of the world’s crises.

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