“A global polycrisis occurs when crises in multiple global systems become causally entangled in ways that cause major human harm. The interactions between constituent crises are significant enough to produce emergent harms that are different from, and usually greater than, the sum of the harms those crises would produce separately.”
The Cascade Institute’s Polycrisis program examines how today’s multiple crises are linked and how the polycrisis could create possibilities for positive outcomes.
The resource and collaboration hub for the polycrisis research community
Cascade Institute is a proud member of the Accelerator for Systemic Risk Assessment Network
Polycrisis Research and Analysis
Impact 2024: How Donald Trump’s Reelection Could Amplify Global Inter-systemic Risk
Thomas Homer-Dixon, Michael Lawrence, Megan Shipman, Luke Kemp
This report, updated with an October 29, 2024 addendum, assesses how a second Trump administration could supercharge global political, economic, geopolitical, environmental, and pandemic risks and how those risks could then combine to escalate the world's already severe polycrisis.
Polycrisis Research and Action Roadmap
Michael Lawrence, Megan Shipman, Scott Janzwood, Constantin Arnscheidt, Jonathan Donges, Thomas Homer-Dixon, Christian Otto, Pia-Johanna Schweizer, Nico Wunderling
This report offers a concise yet comprehensive snapshot of the emerging field of polycrisis analysis, including gaps, opportunities, and potential priorities.
Positive Pathways through Polycrisis
Michael Lawrence and Megan Shipman
This report explores how polycrisis analysis can help us navigate through polycrisis and pursue "positive pathways" to better futures.
Casual Loop Diagrams handbook
This handbook explains how to read and draw a causal loop diagrams (CLD) — a systems mapping technique that helps us to think through our mental model of a system, increase our understanding of a system, and communicate our knowledge to others.
Read More 
Introduction to Polycrisis Analysis
Michael Lawrence, Megan Shipman, and Thomas Homer-Dixon
This guide presents the Cascade Institute’s framework for polycrisis analysis. It introduces an integrated set of concepts that clarifies interactions between global systemic crises and the potential outcomes of those interactions. It is intended to help governments, firms, and communities see through the fog currently surrounding global risks more effectively, so they can better anticipate and respond to emerging threats.
Global polycrisis: The causal mechanisms of crisis entanglement
Michael Lawrence, Thomas Homer-Dixon, Scott Janzwood, Johan Rockström, Ortwin Renn, and Jonathan F. Donges
This peer-reviewed paper, published in Cambridge University Press's Global Sustainability journal, defines the concept of global polycrisis and provides a theoretical framework to explain causal mechanisms currently entangling many of the world’s crises.
What is a global polycrisis?
Michael Lawrence, Scott Janzwood, and Thomas Homer-Dixon
September 16, 2022 • This discussion paper argues that the concept of “global polycrisis” provides a useful framework with which to understand and address major problems afflicting humanity today.
A call for an international research program on the risk of a global polycrisis
Thomas Homer-Dixon, Ortwin Renn, Johan Rockström, Jonathan F. Donges, and Scott Janzwood
March 8, 2022 • This paper calls for a research program to investigate this moment’s seemingly sharp amplification, acceleration, and synchronization of systemic risks.
Impact 2024: How Donald Trump’s Reelection Could Amplify Global Inter-systemic Risk
Thomas Homer-Dixon, Michael Lawrence, Megan Shipman, Luke Kemp
This report, updated with an October 29, 2024 addendum, assesses how a second Trump administration could supercharge global political, economic, geopolitical, environmental, and pandemic risks and how those risks could then combine to escalate the world's already severe polycrisis.
Polycrisis Research and Action Roadmap
Michael Lawrence, Megan Shipman, Scott Janzwood, Constantin Arnscheidt, Jonathan Donges, Thomas Homer-Dixon, Christian Otto, Pia-Johanna Schweizer, Nico Wunderling
This report offers a concise yet comprehensive snapshot of the emerging field of polycrisis analysis, including gaps, opportunities, and potential priorities.
Positive Pathways through Polycrisis
Michael Lawrence and Megan Shipman
This report explores how polycrisis analysis can help us navigate through polycrisis and pursue "positive pathways" to better futures.
Casual Loop Diagrams handbook
This handbook explains how to read and draw a causal loop diagrams (CLD) — a systems mapping technique that helps us to think through our mental model of a system, increase our understanding of a system, and communicate our knowledge to others.
Read More
Introduction to Polycrisis Analysis
Michael Lawrence, Megan Shipman, and Thomas Homer-Dixon
This guide presents the Cascade Institute’s framework for polycrisis analysis. It introduces an integrated set of concepts that clarifies interactions between global systemic crises and the potential outcomes of those interactions. It is intended to help governments, firms, and communities see through the fog currently surrounding global risks more effectively, so they can better anticipate and respond to emerging threats.
Global polycrisis: The causal mechanisms of crisis entanglement
Michael Lawrence, Thomas Homer-Dixon, Scott Janzwood, Johan Rockström, Ortwin Renn, and Jonathan F. Donges
This peer-reviewed paper, published in Cambridge University Press's Global Sustainability journal, defines the concept of global polycrisis and provides a theoretical framework to explain causal mechanisms currently entangling many of the world’s crises.
What is a global polycrisis?
Michael Lawrence, Scott Janzwood, and Thomas Homer-Dixon
September 16, 2022 • This discussion paper argues that the concept of “global polycrisis” provides a useful framework with which to understand and address major problems afflicting humanity today.
A call for an international research program on the risk of a global polycrisis
Thomas Homer-Dixon, Ortwin Renn, Johan Rockström, Jonathan F. Donges, and Scott Janzwood
March 8, 2022 • This paper calls for a research program to investigate this moment’s seemingly sharp amplification, acceleration, and synchronization of systemic risks.
A preliminary list of 12 global systemic stresses visible in the world today, which create systemic risks, contribute to the present polycrisis, and are likely to generate additional crises in the near future.
Polycrisis News & Views
Governing in a Complex World Series: Explaining the Global Polycrisis
Featuring Thomas Homer-Dixon
A Canada School of Public Service recording featuring Cascade Institute Executive Director Thomas Homer-Dixon explaining what a global polycrisis is, how it impacts governance systems, and what this means for the Government of Canada.
Understanding the Ideological Drivers of Russia’s War in Ukraine
Cascade Institute Speaker Series presenter Dr. Jonathan Leader Maynard
Dr. Jonathan Leader Maynard examines the critical role of ideology in Russia's war against Ukraine, offering insights into how ideological factors have shaped both the conflict itself and broader patterns of 21st-century international relations.
Trump redux: Why the returning president is likely to become one of history’s most consequential figures
Thomas Homer-Dixon
Cascade Institute Executive Director Thomas Homer-Dixon warns that as “reconfigurer-in-chief," Donald Trump will be, in philosopher Georg Hegel’s terms, a world-historical figure.
Can we prevent Trump 2.0 from spiralling into catastrophe?
Megan Shipman and Michael Lawrence
Cascade Institute researchers warn that Mr. Trump could activate vicious cycles in global systems and propel calamities that long outlive his second term.
Why So Much is Going Wrong at the Same Time
Thomas Homer-Dixon
This Vox article argues that the world is in a polycrisis generated by novel and unprecedented conditions, as measured by total human energy consumption, Earth’s energy imbalance, the human population’s total biomass, and global connectivity.
Getting to Enough
Presentation by Thomas Homer-Dixon
A graphical illustration of the dilemma that's destroying our world—and how we're going to solve it.
A Hub for the Growing Polycrisis Community
Megan Shipman and Scott Janzwood
The Cascade Institute has launched a new website, Polycrisis.org, to serve as a hub for a more inclusive polycrisis community to converge around a rough consensus on priorities for research and action.
Mapping the Global Systemic Consequences of the Ukraine-Russia War
Systems map by Michael Lawrence
A systems diagram charting the knock-on effects of the Ukraine-Russia War — and the vicious cycles that are emerging from them.
What Happens When a Cascade of Crises Collide?
New York Times article by Thomas Homer-Dixon and Johan Rockström — Today’s mess is best understood as a global polycrisis—a term which implies that humanity is dealing with a complex knot of seemingly distinct but actually deeply entangled crises.
Read More 
Instead of lurching from one catastrophe to the next, B.C. needs to understand how its crises are linked
Globe and Mail article by Thomas Homer-Dixon and Robin Cox — We need to improve how we marshal, integrate, apply and communicate the best knowledge about B.C.’s emerging risks – those known and anticipated, as well as those unexpected and even currently unimaginable.
Read More 
The global systemic consequences of the Ukraine-Russia War: Part I
The first briefing of the Ukraine-Russia War Expert Panel
Read More
Governing in a Complex World Series: Explaining the Global Polycrisis
Featuring Thomas Homer-Dixon
A Canada School of Public Service recording featuring Cascade Institute Executive Director Thomas Homer-Dixon explaining what a global polycrisis is, how it impacts governance systems, and what this means for the Government of Canada.
Understanding the Ideological Drivers of Russia’s War in Ukraine
Cascade Institute Speaker Series presenter Dr. Jonathan Leader Maynard
Dr. Jonathan Leader Maynard examines the critical role of ideology in Russia's war against Ukraine, offering insights into how ideological factors have shaped both the conflict itself and broader patterns of 21st-century international relations.
Trump redux: Why the returning president is likely to become one of history’s most consequential figures
Thomas Homer-Dixon
Cascade Institute Executive Director Thomas Homer-Dixon warns that as “reconfigurer-in-chief," Donald Trump will be, in philosopher Georg Hegel’s terms, a world-historical figure.
Can we prevent Trump 2.0 from spiralling into catastrophe?
Megan Shipman and Michael Lawrence
Cascade Institute researchers warn that Mr. Trump could activate vicious cycles in global systems and propel calamities that long outlive his second term.
Why So Much is Going Wrong at the Same Time
Thomas Homer-Dixon
This Vox article argues that the world is in a polycrisis generated by novel and unprecedented conditions, as measured by total human energy consumption, Earth’s energy imbalance, the human population’s total biomass, and global connectivity.
Getting to Enough
Presentation by Thomas Homer-Dixon
A graphical illustration of the dilemma that's destroying our world—and how we're going to solve it.
A Hub for the Growing Polycrisis Community
Megan Shipman and Scott Janzwood
The Cascade Institute has launched a new website, Polycrisis.org, to serve as a hub for a more inclusive polycrisis community to converge around a rough consensus on priorities for research and action.
Mapping the Global Systemic Consequences of the Ukraine-Russia War
Systems map by Michael Lawrence
A systems diagram charting the knock-on effects of the Ukraine-Russia War — and the vicious cycles that are emerging from them.
What Happens When a Cascade of Crises Collide?
New York Times article by Thomas Homer-Dixon and Johan Rockström — Today’s mess is best understood as a global polycrisis—a term which implies that humanity is dealing with a complex knot of seemingly distinct but actually deeply entangled crises.
Read More
Instead of lurching from one catastrophe to the next, B.C. needs to understand how its crises are linked
Globe and Mail article by Thomas Homer-Dixon and Robin Cox — We need to improve how we marshal, integrate, apply and communicate the best knowledge about B.C.’s emerging risks – those known and anticipated, as well as those unexpected and even currently unimaginable.
Read More
The global systemic consequences of the Ukraine-Russia War: Part I
The first briefing of the Ukraine-Russia War Expert Panel
Read More 