REPORTS & TECHNICAL PAPERS

Thomas Homer-Dixon

A formal model drawing on insights from conflict, critical-transition, and catastrophe theories to explain the causal mechanisms that produce sudden dehumanization in situations of extreme conflict.

Thomas Homer-Dixon, Michael Lawrence, Megan Shipman, Luke Kemp

This report, updated with an October 29, 2024 addendum, assesses how a second Trump administration could supercharge global political, economic, geopolitical, environmental, and pandemic risks and how those risks could then combine to escalate the world's already severe polycrisis.

Rebecca Pearce, Tony Pink

This report reviews state-of-the-art deep geothermal drilling and well-construction technologies, identifies existing technology gaps, and suggests strategies to overcome these gaps.

Leighton Gall, Dave Lovekin, Rebecca Pearce, Emily Smejkal

This Roadmap outlines a plan to advance ultradeep geothermal power—that is, geothermal systems with depths greater than 5 km—to commercial operation in Canada.

Michael Lawrence, Megan Shipman, Scott Janzwood, Constantin Arnscheidt, Jonathan Donges, Thomas Homer-Dixon, Christian Otto, Pia-Johanna Schweizer, Nico Wunderling

This report offers a concise yet comprehensive snapshot of the emerging field of polycrisis analysis, including gaps, opportunities, and potential priorities.

Michael Lawrence and Megan Shipman

This report explores how polycrisis analysis can help us navigate through polycrisis and pursue "positive pathways" to better futures.

This handbook explains how to read and draw a causal loop diagrams (CLD) — a systems mapping technique that helps us to think through our mental model of a system, increase our understanding of a system, and communicate our knowledge to others.

Michael Lawrence, Megan Shipman, and Thomas Homer-Dixon

This guide presents the Cascade Institute’s framework for polycrisis analysis. It introduces an integrated set of concepts that clarifies interactions between global systemic crises and the potential outcomes of those interactions. It is intended to help governments, firms, and communities see through the fog currently surrounding global risks more effectively, so they can better anticipate and respond to emerging threats.

Michael Lawrence, Thomas Homer-Dixon, Scott Janzwood, Johan Rockström, Ortwin Renn, and Jonathan F. Donges

This peer-reviewed paper, published in Cambridge University Press's Global Sustainability journal, defines the concept of global polycrisis and provides a theoretical framework to explain causal mechanisms currently entangling many of the world’s crises.

Michael Lawrence, Scott Janzwood, and Thomas Homer-Dixon

September 16, 2022 • This discussion paper argues that the concept of “global polycrisis” provides a useful framework with which to understand and address major problems afflicting humanity today.

Ian Graham, Ellen Quigley, Scott Janzwood, and Thomas Homer-Dixon

This opportunity analysis makes the case that Canada can and should become the global leader in ultra-deep geothermal electricity production.

Thomas Homer-Dixon, Ortwin Renn, Johan Rockström, Jonathan F. Donges, and Scott Janzwood

March 8, 2022 • This paper calls for a research program to investigate this moment’s seemingly sharp amplification, acceleration, and synchronization of systemic risks.

Hanna Ross and Scott Janzwood

January 31, 2022 • This report presents findings from the Youth Climate Values Survey, which maps out shared and divergent beliefs, priorities, and values within the Canadian youth climate movement.

Angela V. Carter and Truzaar Dordi

April 15, 2021 • This paper shows how growing oil and gas production is impeding Canada from meeting its climate commitments, outlines how the federal government is now supporting oil and gas production growth, and recommends specific policies the federal government could adopt in the near-term to begin a phase out of oil and gas production.

Scott Janzwood

February 23, 2021 • This paper investigates the forces constraining pension funds from taking a bolder leadership role in the net-zero carbon energy transition. It presents strategies for organizations, activists, and researchers to accelerate pension fund leadership on a timescale that is commensurate with the urgency of the climate crisis.

Edward A. (Ted) Parson

October 29, 2020 • This paper explores how recent advances in AI have re-opened questions around the feasibility and desirability of central economic planning. It presents a thought experiment about how an AI-directed economy might work, based on a powerful AI agent (whimsically named “Max”).

Scott Janzwood

April 27, 2020 • This paper analyzes the rapid and widespread changes in attitudes and behaviours toward social distancing practices during the first few months of the COVID-19 pandemic. It highlights how incentives and social network dynamics interact with belief systems to determine whether or not people act consistently with their underlying beliefs.