REPORTS & TECHNICAL PAPERS

Pre-budget recommendations to accelerate the development of Canada’s geothermal industry

Geothermal Energy Office

CI-GEO staff
In response to the Government of Canada’s Fall pre-budget consultations, the Cascade Institute submitted three specific recommendations to accelerate the development of Canada’s geothermal industry.
A collapsed block of ice-rich permafrost along Drew Point, Alaska. Coastal bluffs in this region can erode 20 meters/year (~65 feet). USGS scientists continually research the causes of major permafrost thaw and bluff retreat along the Arctic coast of Alaska. In addition, with the loss of sea ice to protect the beaches from ocean waves, salt water inundates the coastal habitats. Benjamin Jones/USGS. Public domain.

Protecting Permafrost: Addressing the climate threat of Arctic thaw

Permafrost carbon program

Ian Graham
A report assessing the climate threat of Arctic permafrost thaw, potential interventions to address it, and related policy recommendations.

Artificial Intelligence and Energy Innovation: Submission to NRCAN

Geothermal Energy Office

CI-GEO staff
The Cascade Institute submitted a brief to NRCAN highlighting opportunities and examples of current use of various types of AI in various stages of geothermal power development, including in resource characterization, site selection, drilling, reservoir creation, and operations. Applying AI to geothermal energy can unlock an abundant source of clean, secure, baseload electricity needed to power AI itself. This opens the door to a virtuous cycle akin to the steam engine and coal that sparked the industrial revolution.

National Service to Support Community and National Security: A preliminary outline of components, implementation, and costs

Democracy program

David Last
A policy brief prepared for the Office of the Prime Minister for the development of a National Service initiative.

Groundwork: Regulatory guidelines for making Canada a geothermal powerhouse

Ultradeep Geothermal program

Emily Smejkal, Princess Sharlynne Cosalan, Stephanie Rose Cortinovis
A report identifying best practices to help Canadian provinces establish effective geothermal regulations and make Canada a global clean energy leader.
Abstract illustration of drilling

AOSTRA: A model for funding geothermal innovation

Ultradeep Geothermal program

Emily Smejkal, Peter Massie, Leighton Gall
A case study of the Alberta Oil Sands Technology and Research Authority (AOSTRA) as a model for kickstarting geothermal innovation.
Canadian Flag

Defending Canada’s Democracy: A strategic framework

Democracy program

Cascade Institute fellows and staff
An analysis of the forces destabilizing Canada's democracy and a framework for building the country’s economic and social resilience.
Layers of a rock

Prospecting for Superhot Rock Energy

Rebecca Pearce et al.
A technology gap analysis for siting and characterizing superhot rock energy resources.
Wildfire

Entangled Climate Risks: Interactions between permafrost thaw and wildfires

Lina Madaj
An exploration of the relationship between wildfires, permafrost thaw, and permafrost carbon feedback in the context of accelerating climate change.
Dehumanization

Catastrophic Dehumanization: A formal model

Polycrisis program

Thomas Homer-Dixon
A formal model that seeks to explain the causal mechanisms of sudden dehumanization in situations of extreme conflict.
White House

Impact 2024: How Donald Trump’s reelection could amplify global inter-systemic risk

Thomas Homer-Dixon, Michael Lawrence, Megan Shipman, Luke Kemp
A report assessing how a second Trump administration could supercharge global political, economic, geopolitical, environmental, and pandemic risks and how those risks could combine to exacerbate the global polycrisis.
Rock tunnel

Drilling for Superhot Geothermal Energy: A technology gap analysis

Rebecca Pearce, Tony Pink
A report that reviews state-of-the-art deep geothermal drilling and well-construction technologies, identifies existing technology gaps, and suggests strategies to overcome these gaps.
ultradeep geothermal web image

Ultradeep Geothermal Research and Action Roadmap

Leighton Gall, Dave Lovekin, Rebecca Pearce, Emily Smejkal
A roadmap outlining a plan to advance ultradeep geothermal power to commercial operation in Canada.

Polycrisis Research and Action Roadmap

Michael Lawrence, Megan Shipman, Scott Janzwood, Constantin Arnscheidt, Jonathan Donges, Thomas Homer-Dixon, Christian Otto, Pia-Johanna Schweizer, Nico Wunderling
This report offers a concise yet comprehensive snapshot of the emerging field of polycrisis analysis, including gaps, opportunities, and potential priorities.
Path through forest

Positive Pathways through Polycrisis

Michael Lawrence and Megan Shipman
A report exploring how polycrisis analysis can help us navigate through polycrisis and pursue "positive pathways" to better futures.
Loop circle

Causal Loop Diagrams Handbook

A handbook explaining how to read and draw a causal loop diagram, a systems-mapping technique for thinking through our mental model of a system and communicating our knowledge to others.

Introduction to Polycrisis Analysis

Michael Lawrence, Megan Shipman, and Thomas Homer-Dixon
An introduction to Cascade Institute’s framework for polycrisis analysis, intended to help governments, firms, and communities assess global risks and respond to emerging threats more effectively.
Entangled World

Global polycrisis: The causal mechanisms of crisis entanglement

Michael Lawrence, Thomas Homer-Dixon, Scott Janzwood, Johan Rockström, Ortwin Renn, and Jonathan F. Donges
A peer-reviewed paper, published in Cambridge University Press's Global Sustainability journal, which defines the concept of global polycrisis and provides a theoretical framework to explain causal mechanisms currently entangling many of the world’s crises.
Fire light

What is a global polycrisis?

Michael Lawrence, Scott Janzwood, and Thomas Homer-Dixon
A discussion paper that argues that the concept of “global polycrisis” provides a useful framework with which to understand and address major problems afflicting humanity today.
Geothermal Site

Deep Geothermal Superpower: Canada’s potential for a breakthrough in enhanced geothermal systems

Ian Graham, Ellen Quigley, Scott Janzwood, and Thomas Homer-Dixon
An opportunity analysis that makes the case that Canada can and should become the global leader in ultra-deep geothermal electricity production.