Global Systemic Stresses: Understanding the drivers of polycrisis

Technical Paper #2025-16

Version Number: 1.0

November 25, 2025

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Michael Lawrence, Megan Shipman, and Chris Collins

Building risk models on longer-term systemic stresses

 

This report, in partnership with the Global Risk Institute, offers insights for financial sector leaders, regulators, and policymakers on shifting the risk management focus from short-term triggers to longer-term systemic stresses. Recommendations include improving crisis anticipation within financial firms and supporting stress-based reporting at the regulatory level. The recommendations are based on the Cascade Institute’s Stress-Trigger-Crisis model, which offers a rigorous framework for understanding polycrises and managing systemic risks.