Modelling Deployment of Enhanced Geothermal Systems in Western Canada

Background

Geothermal power uses underground heat to generate firm, baseload electricity. Wells are drilled into hot rock, water is pumped to the surface where it drives a turbine, then it is re-injected underground so the cycle can continue. 

Conventional geothermal requires naturally porous, water-filled reservoirs. EGS expands the resource base by creating engineered fracture networks that improve fluid flow in otherwise impermeable rock. 

Canada’s geothermal potential varies widely by location. Temperature gradients, reservoir depth, and subsurface conditions strongly affect cost. Hotter gradients — such as in parts of BC and the NWT — lower development costs because higher temperatures increase energy output. 

Because costs are highly site-specific, geothermal is often underrepresented in energy models. This study incorporates granular cost inputs by depth and geography, allowing a realistic assessment of EGS in western Canada. 

Model Inputs

Techno-economic analysis shows EGS is already competitive with other forms of firm generation on both LCOE and capital cost metrics; this is especially true in regions with hotter geothermal gradients. In an innovation scenario reflecting reasonable advances and cost efficiencies in key project aspects such as drilling and reservoir engineering costs decline further. 

EGS deployment was modelled across western provinces under three innovation scenarios: 

• A high-cost, slow innovation, low available capacity EGS scenario; 

• A reference cost, moderate innovation, mid available capacity EGS scenario; and 

• A low cost, rapid innovation, large available capacity EGS scenario. 

The modelled cost curves for each province are shown on the data visualization below. Mouse over the cost curves to see additional information, or select a different province in the upper right corner of the visualization.