Time to dig deep into a strategy for geothermal power

Peter Massie and Emily Smejkal

Peter Massie is the director of the Cascade Institute’s Geothermal Energy Office in Ottawa. Emily Smejkal is the geothermal policy lead at the Cascade Institute, collaborating with the Accelerating Community Energy Transformation initiative.

The Version of Record of this op-ed was published in The Hill Times.

In 2024, the prospects for geothermal power were utterly transformed. In 2025, Canada must decide whether to lead or follow in this arena. Recent breakthroughs create a clear opportunity for our country, but other nations are acting fast, and Canada’s window for leadership is closing rapidly.

Geothermal was once considered a Goldilocks technology because it required geological conditions that were just right; but recent breakthroughs make the vision of generating geothermal power anywhere in the world more realistic than ever. Innovation is happening at a rate perhaps exceeding that with any other power technology today.

Geothermal is a perfect fit to support electrification, integrate renewables, and meet new demand from AI and data centers because it provides reliable, flexible baseload power than runs 24/7.

Here’s the backstory. Geothermal taps heat that’s generated and stored within the Earth. The deeper you go, the higher the temperature, so the more geothermal energy available. Geothermal energy within a few metres of the Earth’s surface can heat our homes in the winter, and cool them in the summer. By drilling deeper—at least several kilometres—we can access temperatures needed to produce abundant electrical power.

The environmental impacts are minimal. There’s no waste, and there are no carbon emissions. Since geothermal energy is underground, power plants require minimal land use, and are largely sheltered from extreme weather

Until now, though, the need for rare geologic conditions created high upfront risk and limited scalability, so geothermal failed to match the incredible growth of wind and solar.

But a recent report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) rewrites the story. The IEA found that with continued innovation, cost-effective geothermal capacity could increase from just 15 Gigawatts (GW) worldwide today to 800 GW by 2050. That’s nearly 10 per cent of the world’s current installed capacity. The associated investment would be $US2.1-trillion by 2050.

The IEA’s projections reflect several recent breakthroughs that have unshackled geothermal, eliminating the need for Goldilocks conditions. Companies like Fervo Energy in the United States have made major strides in hard-rock drilling and “enhanced geothermal systems” that create networks of fractures in the rock through which water flows to pick up heat. The Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE)—funded by the U.S. Department of Energy—has catalyzed these advances.

Canada is also making major contributions. For example, Alberta-based Eavor is pioneering “advanced geothermal systems” that pump water through closed subterranean loops, just the way a car’s radiator works.

These technologies are not speculative, nor are they years off in the future. They exist today. And simultaneously, a global market is materializing. The past year saw a wave of geothermal deals as the world’s largest companies rush to power data centres and AI facilities. GoogleMeta, and Microsoft have all announced investments in geothermal.

Meanwhile, Canada risks falling behind. The U.S., Iceland, the European Union, and China have a head start, and they’re making big bets. FORGE alone received a U.S. federal investment of US$140-million with an US$80-million extension, while Fervo Energy just announced another US$255-million in private investment.

Yet, our nation has the natural advantages that could help it catch up and lead with next-generation geothermal power. Western Canada has abundant subsurface heat within reach of current drilling technologies, and a world-class energy sector with vast drilling expertise. The IEA report notes the oil and gas sector can provide 80 per cent of the skills the geothermal industry requires. In fact, it is oil and gas technological breakthroughs, such as advanced diamond drill bits and horizontal drilling, that are re-inventing geothermal today.

Innovative Canadian firms like Eavor are proof that Canada can excel; and Alberta’s just-announced Alberta Drilling Accelerator—which will provide an open-source site that firms can use to test their technologies—shows that at least one province is onside.

But a natural advantage is not a competitive edge. Our country needs a deliberate and targeted strategy, as the Cascade Institute has outlined in its Geothermal Roadmap. Strategic investments in innovation, such as a series of field laboratories, combined with a supportive policy context, could build on a proven made-in-Canada model to position the country at the forefront of geothermal.

Canada cannot lead on every element of the energy transformation. But we must seriously consider an opportunity so well aligned with our strengths. The world’s energy systems are transforming, and countries like China are starting to dominate global markets.

If Canada wants to be a technology maker rather than a technology taker—in deep drilling, where we have been, and should remain, a leader—we need to move now on geothermal.

Peter Massie is director of the Cascade Institute’s Geothermal Energy Office. He has a decade of experience in roles focused on federal energy policy, including energy modelling, electricity, and innovation. Emily Smejkal is the geothermal policy lead at the Cascade Institute at Royal Roads University and a fellow collaborating with the Accelerating Community Energy Transformation initiative.