The version of record of this op-ed appeared in The Globe and Mail.
Full Environics Research polling data, summary and highlights, and methodological details are available here.
Thomas Homer-Dixon and Toby Shannan
Thomas Homer-Dixon is the executive director of the Cascade Institute at Royal Roads University.
Toby Shannan is a technology entrepreneur.
After the breakdown of trade negotiations between Canada and the United States, Canadians across the political spectrum are rallying round the Maple Leaf. But we’re still in the confrontation’s early stage, where outrage feels good and comes easily. The true costs will come later.
Current polls of our attitudes may mislead. Dopamine flows in pulses. Foreboding and second thoughts may well follow our current high, as prices for tariffed products climb, national and provincial debts soar, and tens of thousands of good jobs vanish.
To really gauge Canadians’ commitment to resistance, regardless of our potential foe, we need data that capture our deeper, more enduring sentiments. New evidence suggests we may indeed be ready to sustain the costs of our newfound defiance.
Just over a year ago, in April, 2025, the Cascade Institute commissioned Environics, one of the country’s leading polling firms, to gauge the strength of Canadians’ patriotism. In an online poll, the company asked 2,000 people questions about their willingness to defend our country against military attack. This past May, Environics repeated the poll with the same questions and 1,800 Canadians, allowing us to both check the original results and see significant trends over time.
Environics sampled and weighted the poll’s respondents to represent Canada’s regional, linguistic, demographic and socio-economic diversity. It also conducted the poll when U.S. President Donald Trump’s verbal attacks on Canada were relatively muted, so the results likely tapped quite stable underlying attitudes, not reactive ones.
We started by asking, “What actions would you take, if any, to fight to defend Canada against a military attack and invasion or occupation by a hostile foreign power?” The poll offered several possible responses, from signing petitions to attending rallies or volunteering for military service. Sentiment weakened somewhat between 2025 and 2026, with the proportion saying they’d take at least some action falling 9 points from 71 to 62 per cent. Those willing to join a civil defence force dropped from 26 to 19 per cent, while the number of people willing to volunteer for military service dropped from 13 to 9 per cent.
But answers to other, tougher questions revealed persistent or even hardening resolve. If Canada were defeated and occupied by another country, more than half the respondents said they’d resist in some way (about 53 per cent in 2025 rising to about 55 per cent in 2026). Numbers stayed stable for those willing to join non-violent resistance (close to 40 per cent) or to participate in violent resistance, for instance, by joining an underground militia (around 15 per cent).
We noted last year that this latter percentage represents nearly 5 million Canadian adults. Even assuming that, realistically, only half would follow through and only half of those, in turn, would be sufficiently able, an insurgency would still encompass over a million people.
The numbers from 2025 shifted dramatically in answer to our toughest question: “Would you be willing to make the ultimate sacrifice for Canada and die defending this country against a foreign military attack or occupation?” The proportion saying simply “no” dropped 13 points, from 47 to 34 per cent, while those prepared to die either unconditionally or “depending on the situation” jumped from 38 to 46 per cent.
The latter fraction represents about 15 million adults. It means that insurgents fighting an occupying force would have a vast sea of supporters aiding their fight.
Generational and regional breakdowns on this “willingness to die” question were particularly fascinating. Millennials, at 38 per cent, came in well below average, but members of Gen Z polled over 51 per cent, higher than Gen X (47 per cent) and roughly even with boomers. And while Quebec residents, at 39 per cent, polled below average – a not surprising result, given Canadian history, but still a large minority – 51 per cent of Albertans were willing to die for Canada under some circumstances, substantially above the national average. Secessionists should take note.
As before, we didn’t specify the potential aggressor until the poll’s end. Then we asked how likely people thought a military attack on Canada might be in the next five years by either Russia, China or the United States. All outcomes were seen as less probable than in 2025. Yet more than a third of respondents still believed that a U.S. attack was at least “somewhat likely,” more than 10 points higher than for either Russia or China. Given developments over the last week, the U.S. figure would almost certainly be even higher today.
The bottom line: For a majority of Canadians, national pride appears anchored in genuine resolve to bear substantial personal costs defending our country against any and all who might come after us.
