In a column published Aug. 30 in the Victoria Times Colonist, public health expert Trevor Hancock reported on the Cascade Institute’s latest polycrisis findings, presented by Thomas Homer-Dixon in the opening plenary of this year’s Victoria Forum.
The forum, hosted jointly by the Senate of Canada, the University of Victoria and Royal Roads University, paired Homer-Dixon with Dr. Courtney Howard of the Global Climate and Health Alliance. Hancock frames the polycrisis through Rittel and Webber’s classic definition of a “wicked problem” — one that defies complete definition and for which no final solution exists — and argues that wicked problems call for what he calls virtuous solutions, rooted in a commitment to the public good.
Hancock reports the Polycrisis Core Model’s central result: of the stable global scenarios the model identifies for 2040, eight are as bad as or worse than today, with deterioration the most likely outcome and collapse the second most likely. Of the better futures, one is a high-tech autocracy and the remaining one is the Hope Attractor — which, as Homer-Dixon told the forum, is “not simply a speculative or aspirational future,” but “a scientifically grounded basis for honest hope.”
Review the presentation deck, “Pathways to the Hope Attractor.”
