Global Systemic Stresses: Understanding the drivers of polycrisis
Polycrisis program
Michael Lawrence, Megan Shipman, and Chris Collins
A Global Risk Institute research report of the longer-term systemic stresses driving the polycrisis.
Global polycrisis: The causal mechanisms of crisis entanglement
Michael Lawrence, Thomas Homer-Dixon, Scott Janzwood, Johan Rockström, Ortwin Renn, and Jonathan F. Donges
A peer-reviewed paper, published in Cambridge University Press’s Global Sustainability journal, which defines the concept of global polycrisis and provides a theoretical framework to explain causal mechanisms currently entangling many of the world’s crises.
Impact 2024: How Donald Trump’s reelection could amplify global inter-systemic risk
Thomas Homer-Dixon, Michael Lawrence, Megan Shipman, Luke Kemp
A technical paper assessing how a second Trump administration could supercharge global political, economic, geopolitical, environmental, and pandemic risks and how those risks could combine to exacerbate the global polycrisis.
Polycrisis Research and Action Roadmap
Michael Lawrence, Megan Shipman, Scott Janzwood, Constantin Arnscheidt, Jonathan Donges, Thomas Homer-Dixon, Christian Otto, Pia-Johanna Schweizer, Nico Wunderling
This report offers a concise yet comprehensive snapshot of the emerging field of polycrisis analysis, including gaps, opportunities, and potential priorities.
Positive Pathways through Polycrisis
Michael Lawrence and Megan Shipman
A report exploring how polycrisis analysis can help us navigate through polycrisis and pursue “positive pathways” to better futures.
Causal Loop Diagrams Handbook
A handbook explaining how to read and draw a causal loop diagram, a systems-mapping technique for thinking through our mental model of a system and communicating our knowledge to others.
Introduction to Polycrisis Analysis
Michael Lawrence, Megan Shipman, and Thomas Homer-Dixon
An introduction to Cascade Institute’s framework for polycrisis analysis, intended to help governments, firms, and communities assess global risks and respond to emerging threats more effectively.
What is a global polycrisis?
Michael Lawrence, Scott Janzwood, and Thomas Homer-Dixon
A discussion paper that argues that the concept of “global polycrisis” provides a useful framework with which to understand and address major problems afflicting humanity today.
A call for an international research program on the risk of a global polycrisis
Thomas Homer-Dixon, Ortwin Renn, Johan Rockström, Jonathan F. Donges, and Scott Janzwood
A paper calling for a research program to investigate this moment’s seemingly sharp amplification, acceleration, and synchronization of systemic risks.
Max – a thought experiment: Could AI run the economy better than markets?
Edward A. (Ted) Parson
This paper explores how recent advances in AI have re-opened questions around the feasibility and desirability of central economic planning. It presents a thought experiment about how an AI-directed economy might work, based on a powerful AI agent (whimsically named “Max”).
