The Challenge
Humanity must zero-out greenhouse gas emissions as fast as possible. But rising emissions from warming permafrost could substantially offset any progress, directly harming northern and Indigenous communities, while threatening to use up a significant portion of the remaining global carbon budget. The sooner we understand permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) and assess potential responses, the sooner we can intervene to mitigate these emissions.
In March 2020, the PCF Action Group hosted four Dialogues attended by over 300 people from twenty countries. Presentations by some of the world’s top permafrost experts from academia and northern Indigenous communities underscored the gravity of the PCF problem and the urgent need for a coordinated effort to find solutions.
The resounding message was that PCF must be investigated further. We need to understand better the magnitude of permafrost thaw and carbon emissions, how these processes might be slowed, and how affected regions might be transformed from net carbon emitters to net sinks. While new research is addressing some of these gaps, we need a comprehensive effort to synthesize the knowledge emerging from disconnected fields, identify research and investment priorities, and facilitate critical exchanges between the diverse and global community of stakeholders impacted by PCF.
Our Response
The Cascade Institute proposes to lead this effort. By orchestrating a structured consultation and expert elicitation process with the growing “PCF Community of Intent” and with the global permafrost research community, the Institute will publicize the PCF issue, catalyze research, and inform government action at every level. As a first step, we propose a one-year project to develop a PCF Action Roadmap with the following four goals:
- update the assessment of the state of knowledge on permafrost thaw and emissions[1]—and assess the state of knowledge on potential solutions;
- identify and rank R&D gaps;
- build consensus around actions that might be implemented at a global scale; and
- make specific recommendations for research, interventions, investment, and policy.
To accomplish the first two of the above four goals, the Roadmap will focus on the following four priority topics that emerged from the Dialogues:
- the magnitude, distribution, and biophysical characterization of permafrost thaw;
- more accurate integration of permafrost carbon feedbacks into global climate models;
- local and regional adaptation strategies; and,
- local, regional, and global interventions that could minimize thaw or PCF impacts.
Expanding the PCF Community of Intent
The Dialogues this past March began the process of creating a broad and inclusive PCF Community of Intent to integrate the perspectives of groups affected by permafrost thaw—specifically northern Indigenous peoples—with the diverse scientific disciplines studying the thaw, its consequences, and its potential solutions.
As a principal step towards accomplishing the Roadmap’s third goal above, the Cascade Institute will expand this community. It will then draw upon this group to develop recommendations that reflect policy and economic constraints and diverse ways of knowing.
Review Panels
To ensure the best knowledge available informs the Roadmap, the Cascade Institute will consult the PCF Community of Intent to create four review panels representing diverse stakeholders. These panels will:
- review the state of scientific knowledge, cultural practices, and government and climate policies relating to the four priority topics above;
- identify relevant technical, social, finance, and government actors; and,
- review the current R&D, investment, and governance activities in Canada and abroad.
In line with the Roadmap’s fourth goal, the panels will formulate recommendations and expected outcomes for the next stages of national and international PCF action.
Deliverables
The Roadmap itself will be the main deliverable. It will include a state-of-knowledge review; a compilation of key knowledge gaps, R&D priorities, challenges, and opportunities; a comprehensive stakeholder map of relevant actors around the world; and a timeline for specific actions to be carried out by governments, researchers, northern and Indigenous communities, investors, and other stakeholders, along with estimates of these actions’ expected impacts.
[1] Established by the IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate in 2019.
