Canadian Thermal Model

Ultradeep Geothermal

Geothermal energy is a major economic and technical opportunity for Canada. Canada has world-class expertise in subsurface resource development, and a need to establish a domestic energy supply that includes clean, firm, renewable power. Research into next-generation geothermal energy generation will unlock vast supplies of renewable heat and electricity for the Canadian energy grid, and these skills can be exported worldwide, generating substantial revenue for Canadian firms while reducing global CO₂ emissions.

To integrate geothermal into future-facing energy strategies, a comprehensive resource assessment that can be used for market supply analysis must match the assessments available for other renewable energy technologies, such as interactive wind and solar energy resource maps.

The Canadian Thermal Model will model Canada’s deep geothermal resources from 0–20 km depth, aiming for a spatial resolution of 20 km². The model will reveal where deep heat can be harnessed to provide clean, firm, renewable energy, and demonstrate Canada’s geothermal opportunity to policymakers and industry. The Cascade Institute has recruited a team of highly qualified geoscientists to perform this analysis with the state-of-the-art Stanford Thermal Model (STM)(opens in new tab) (Aljubran & Horne, 2024), recently used to map the heat resources of the contiguous USA.

Downstream applications for a national thermal model

A mutable thermal model that can be updated as further data is acquired to further reduce uncertainty in thermal regimes at depth across Canada
Techno-economic modelling linking depth-dependent thermal gradients with drilling cost parameters to improve cost-benefit analysis and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) projections
Foundational tool for industry to consider further, site-specific exploration and project development
Informs policy and infrastructure decisions by mapping subsurface geothermal potential against surface constraints (e.g., population density, proximity to powerlines) to factor geothermal into clean, baseload energy supply projections

The scientific merit of a Canadian Thermal Model

To acquire a full array of borehole temperature data across Canada’s landscape and at the depths required by deep geothermal technologies is a cost- and time-intensive undertaking that will be outpaced by next-generation geothermal innovation.

Data-driven, statistically grounded thermal modelling techniques are a step forward in estimating temperature regimes at depth and in data-sparse regions. The Canadian Thermal Model will integrate directly sampled temperature data with thermal proxies and geophysical inputs that offer greater depth penetration.

Project roadmap and deliverables

Get in touch

Are you a researcher, regulator, energy company, or government agency with data that could contribute to Canada's comprehensive thermal model? We welcome outreach from data holders, potential collaborators, and anyone interested in supporting or learning more about this work.

Project Contributors

Rebecca Pearce (Ph.D.)

Cascade Institute Research Fellow
A geophysicist specializing in magnetotelluric data acquisition, processing, and inversion. Her research is focused on conventional and next-generation geothermal resource characterization, including studies in the Andes, Northern Canada, and Antarctica.

Emily Smejkal (P.Geo.)

Cascade Institute Research Fellow
A professional geologist specializing in subsurface characterization and geothermal systems. Her research applies petrophysical, structural, and geoscience datasets to the assessment, de-risking, and development of geothermal resources.

Mohammad Aljubran (Ph.D.)
400C Energy
An energy engineer specializing in thermal Earth modelling using physics-constrained deep learning algorithms to map geothermal resource potential and characterize subsurface heat systems. He holds a PhD in Energy Resources Engineering from Stanford University.

Mareen Lösing (Ph.D.)
University of Iceland, Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science (ACEAS)
A geophysicist specializing in geothermal heat flow beneath ice sheets. She uses statistical and machine learning methods to integrate diverse datasets in data-scarce environments, with a focus on reducing uncertainty in heat-flow predictions, critical to Antarctic ice sheet modelling.

Riddhi Dave (Ph.D.)
GSC Pacific Division
A structural seismologist leading multidisciplinary national and international projects to map the deep architecture of continents. She specializes in integrating geophysical datasets to understand craton evolution for applications spanning critical minerals, energy transition, seismic resilience, and societal needs.

Félix-Antoine Comeau (Ph.D.)
INRS
A member of the Research Group on Energy Resources of Québec’s Sedimentary Basins and the Research Chair on the Geothermal Potential of the North. His experience spans subsurface analysis in the St. Lawrence Lowlands and Northern Canada.

Dan Alonso Torres (P.Geo.)
Teverra & Advection Geo
A professional geologist focused on geothermal exploration and subsurface resource evaluation. He combines structural geology, reservoir characterization, and integrated geoscience workflows to support project development, with a track record in advancing geothermal opportunities across diverse geological settings.

Josh Sellars (P.Geo.)
Project Geophysicist, Seequent
A geophysicist specializing in geophysical processing, interpretation, and geological modelling for energy exploration and feasibility studies.

This research is supported by the Accelerating Community Energy Transformation initiative, to which the Cascade Institute brings system theory analysis and complex problem-solving experience, unlocking high-leverage interventions including ultradeep geothermal to accelerate community energy transformation.

Ultradeep Geothermal Research & Analysis